KPCB Internet trends 2014

by inventuslaw

  • 1. 1 INTERNET TRENDS 2014 – CODE CONFERENCE Mary Meeker May 28, 2014 kpcb.com/InternetTrends
  • 2. 2 Outline 1) Key Internet Trends 2) Status Update – Tech Stocks / Education / Healthcare 3) Re-Imagining Continues 4) Screen + Video Growth = Still Early Innings 5) China’s Epic Share Gains 6) Public Company Trends 7) One More Thing(s)… 8) Ran Outta Time Thoughts / Appendix
  • 3. 3 KEY INTERNET TRENDS 3
  • 4. 4 • Internet Users <10% Y/Y growth & slowing…fastest growth in more difficult to monetize developing markets like India / Indonesia / Nigeria • Smartphone Subscribers +20% strong growth though slowing…fastest growth in underpenetrated markets like China / India / Brazil / Indonesia • Tablets +52% early stage rapid unit growth • Mobile Data Traffic +81% accelerating growth…video = strong driver *Details on Internet Users & Smartphone Subscribers in Appendix. Source: Tablet growth per Morgan Stanley Research, 5/14. Mobile traffic per Cisco Visual Networking Index, 5/14. High-Level User / Usage Trends*
  • 5. 5 Mobile Usage Growth = Very Strong
  • 6. 6 Global Smartphone Quarterly Unit Shipments & Smartphone Users as % of Mobile Phone Users, 2009 – 2013 35 42 43 54 55 64 83 102 104 113 134 170 159 172 203 244 233 266 291 315 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 100 200 300 400 GlobalSmartphoneUsersas%ofMobile PhoneUsers GlobalSmartphoneQuarterlyUnits Shipped(MM) Smartphone Units Shipped Smartphone Users as % of Mobile Phone Users Source: Smartphone shipments per Morgan Stanley Research. User base per KPCB estimates based on Morgan Stanley Research and ITU data. Smartphone users & mobile phone users represent unique individuals owning mobile devices, as noted on slide 8; Mobile Subscribers based on number of connections & may therefore overstate number of mobile users. Smartphone Users = Still Lots of Upside… @ 30% of 5.2B Mobile Phone User Base
  • 7. 7 Global PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95 – Q4:13 0 20 40 60 80 Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13 GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs) Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets Tablet Units = Growing Faster Than PCs Ever Did… +52%, 2013 Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.
  • 8. 8 Global Users of TVs vs. Mobile Phones vs. Smartphones vs. PCs vs. Tablets, 2013 439MM 743MM 789MM 1.6B 5.2B 5.5B 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Tablet Desktop PC Laptop PC Smartphone Mobile Phone TV Global Users (MMs) Population Penetration 73% 22% 11% 10% 6% 78% Tablet Users = Loads of Growth Ahead… @ 56% of Laptops / 28% of Smartphones / 8% of TVs Source: KPCB estimates based on Morgan Stanley Research and ITU data. TV Users is estimate for users with TVs in household, given 1.4B households with TVs in world.
  • 9. 9 11% 6% 8% 23% 18% 12% 14% 19% 17% 16% 37% 38% 17% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% North America South America Europe Asia Africa Oceania Global %ofPageViewsComingFromMobile Devices May-13 May-14 Mobile Usage as % of Web Usage, by Region, 5/14 Mobile Usage = Continues to Rise Rapidly… @ 25% of Total Web Usage vs. 14% Y/Y Source: StatCounter, 5/14.
  • 10. 10 2005 2010 2013 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MarketShareofSmartphoneOS Other OS iOS Android Windows Phone BlackBerry OS Linux Nokia Symbian Global Smartphone Operating System Market Share (by Units Shipped), 2005 vs. 2010 vs. 2013 Global Smartphone Operating Systems ‘Made in USA’… 97% Share from 5% Eight Years Ago Source: 2005 & 2010 data per Gartner, 2013 data per IDC.
  • 11. 11 Each New Computing Cycle = 10x > Installed Base than Previous Cycle Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report (12/09)
  • 12. 12 Advertising / Monetization = Mobile Especially Compelling
  • 13. 13 $62 $64 $76 $86 $100 $116 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Y/YGrowth GlobalInternetAdvertising($B) Desktop Advertising Mobile Advertising Y/Y Growth Global Internet Advertising, 2008 – 2013 Internet Advertising = Remains Strong… +16%…Mobile +47% to 11% of Total Source: PWC Global Entertainment & Media Outlook, 2013.
  • 14. 14 Annualized Ad ARPU ($) Q1:12 Q2:12 Q3:12 Q4:12 Q1:13 Q2:13 Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Google ($) $37 $37 $38 $43 $42 $41 $41 $46 $45 Y/Y Growth 9% 6% 6% 14% 14% 11% 10% 8% 8% Facebook ($) $4.00 $4.28 $4.43 $5.15 $4.60 $5.65 $6.14 $7.76 $7.24 Y/Y Growth 1% (2%) 7% 12% 15% 32% 39% 51% 57% Mobile % of MAU 54% 57% 60% 64% 68% 71% 74% 77% 79% Twitter ($) $1.29 $1.50 $1.64 $2.15 $1.97 $2.22 $2.65 $3.65 $3.55 Y/Y Growth 90% 134% 108% 93% 52% 48% 61% 69% 80% Mobile % of MAU — — — — — 75% 76% 76% 78% Annualized Ad ARPU ($) & Mobile % of MAU ARPU Upside for Facebook + Twitter… Google ARPU = 6x Facebook…Facebook = 2x Twitter Source: SEC Filings & Comscore. ARPU = Average Revenue per User, defined as annualized revenue per Monthly Active User (MAU). Google ARPU is calculated using Google’s gross revenue & Comscore unique visitors.
  • 15. 15 5% 12% 38% 25% 20%19% 10% 45% 22% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Print Radio TV Internet Mobile %ofTotalMediaConsumptionTime orAdvertisingSpending Time Spent Ad Spend % of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2013 ~$30B+ Opportunity in USA Internet Ad = $43B Mobile Ad = $7.1B Remain Optimistic About Mobile Ad Spend Growth… Print Remains Way Over-Indexed Source: Advertising spend based on IAB data for full year 2013. Print includes newspaper and magazine. $30B+ opportunity calculated assuming Internet and Mobile ad spend share equal their respective time spent share. Time spent share data based on eMarketer 7/13 (adjusted to exclude outdoors / classified media spend). Arrows denote Y/Y shift in percent share.
  • 16. 16 $2 $3 $6 $14 $24 $38 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 MobileAd+AppsSpending($B) Mobile Apps Mobile Advertising Global Mobile App + Advertising Revenue, 2008 – 2013 Mobile App Revenue = Still Trumps Mobile Ad Revenue… @ 68% of Mobile Monetization Source: Global Mobile App revenue per Strategy Analytics; comprises virtual goods, in-app advertising, subscription, & download revenue. Global Mobile Advertising revenue per PWC; comprises browser, search & classified advertising revenue.
  • 17. 17 Cyber Threats Intensifying…
  • 18. 18 1) # of Active Threat Groups Rising Rapidly = 300 (+4x since 2011) per Mandiant tracking 2) Increased Nation-State Activities* 3) Vulnerable Systems Placed on Internet Compromised in <15 Minutes** 4) +95% of Networks Compromised in Some Way 5) As Mobile Platforms Grow, Directed Attacks Will Rise Cybersecurity Trends – Kevin Mandia (Mandiant / FireEye) Source: *FireEye Operation Saffron Rose, **Honeynet Project.
  • 19. 19 STATUS UPDATE – TECH STOCKS / EDUCATION / HEALTHCARE 19
  • 20. 20 Technology Company Valuation Excess? Some? Yes… But, Let’s Look @ Patterns…
  • 21. 21 NumberofIPOsperYear 22 44 51 93 76 134 193 126 86 310 221 20 16 19 50 38 39 65 6 15 48 44 43 41 25 0 100 200 300 400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Global Technology IPO Issuance, 1990 – 2014YTD $1 $2 $4 $5 $3 $9 $18 $7 $6 $31 $31 $10 $2 $2 $12 $7 $7 $12 $1 $4 $8 $11 $21 $8 $5 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 United States North America Asia Europe South America NASDAQ 87% Below 73% Below May 22, 2014 = NASDAQ @ 4,154 March 10, 2000 = Technology Market Peak, NASDAQ @ 5,049 AnnualTechnologyIPO Volume($B) *Facebook = 75% of 2012 IPO $ value. Source: Morgan Stanley Equity Capital Markets, 2014YTD as of 5/21/14, data per Dealogic, Bloomberg, & Capital IQ. 2013 Technology IPOs = $ Volume 73% Below 1999 Peak Level… NASDAQ 18% Below March 2000 Peak
  • 22. 22 765 636 589 679 586 655 985 1,462 1,782 2,354 3,668 5,476 3,182 2,141 1,898 2,036 2,095 2,349 2,505 2,587 1,918 2,230 2,571 2,637 2,746 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 USA Technology Venture Capital Financing, 1989 – 2013 #ofUSATechnologyCompanies ReceivingVentureFinancing 50% Below $2 $2 $1 $3 $2 $3 $5 $8 $11 $19 $50 $101 $35 $18 $15 $18 $17 $22 $20 $24 $13 $17 $25 $20 $24 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 77% Below AggregateVentureFinancingfor USTechnologyCompanies($B) Funding per Financing ($MM) $3 $3 $2 $5 $4 $4 $5 $5 $6 $8 $14 $18 $11 $8 $8 $9 $8 $9 $8 $9 $7 $7 $10 $8 $9 2013 Venture Financings = $ Volume 77% Below 2000 Peak Level Source: Thomson ONE. Funding per Financing ($MM) calculated as total venture financing per year divided by number of deals.
  • 23. 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Technology Company Market Value as % of S&P500, 1991 – 2014YTD March 10, 2000 = NASDAQ Peak, Tech as % of S&P @ 35% Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, CapIQ, 2014YTD as of 5/21/14. Tech Companies @ 19% of S&P500 Value = Well Below 35% March, 2000 Peak Level
  • 24. 24 Education = May Be @ Inflection Point
  • 25. 25 Education is Important – Getting education right is crucial for future success Education is Expensive • Secondary School Costs – USA ranks 4th globally in expenditure per student among 34 OECD countries* • Higher Education Costs – 71% of 4-year college grads = $30K average student loan debt. All in, this $1T+ exceeds credit card & auto loan debt Education Results Often Subpar • Public Schools – Rank 27th globally in math / 20th in science / 17th in reading • College Job Prep – 1/3 of four-year college graduates feel their education did not prepare them well for employment Education Realities = Facts – USA… *USA ranks behind Luxembourg / Switzerland / Norway. Source: OECD Programme for International Student Assessment, 2011 & 2012. The Institute for College Access & Success, 2014. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. ‘Voice of the Graduate,’ McKinsey / Chegg.
  • 26. 26 • People Care About Education – 8 in 10 Americans say education issue is extremely / very important to them • Personalized Education Ramping – People learn in different ways and Internet offers many options – on own terms and at low cost – to many, with real-time feedback • Distribution Expanding & Education Start Up Costs Declining – Direct to consumer / teacher allows education products to receive rapid mass adoption…productization / distribution costs falling …Education Realities = Reasons for Optimism… Source: GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications, 2012
  • 27. 27 • Graduation Rates Rising – 81% of high school freshman graduated in 2012, up from 74% five years ago • Language Learning Easier / Fun – 25MM+ people (+14x Y/Y) use Duolingo app to learn new language • Communication Easier – 12MM+ teachers / students / parents (+15x Y/Y) use Remind101 to send 500MM+ messages • Behavior Feedback Easier – 35MM+ teachers / students / parents using ClassDojo to help improve student behavior through real-time feedback • Online Courses Can Help Learning Process (for Teachers + Students) • 430MM+ views (+69% Y/Y) on Khan Academy YouTube channel, 10MM MAUs • 65MM+ courses (+59% Y/Y) from iTunes U Open University downloaded • 7MM+ students (+ >2x Y/Y) enrolled in Coursera courses …Education Realities = Green Shoots Data Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2014. Company data.
  • 28. 28 25% 30% 29% 11% 5% North America Europe Latin America Asia Africa / Oceana 35% 23% 11% 25% 6% North America Europe Latin America Asia Africa / Oceana Online Education = It’s a Global Thing Source: Duolingo, Coursera. Duolingo (25MM Users) Traffic Distribution, 4/14 Coursera (7MM Users) Student Distribution, 3/14
  • 29. 29 Healthcare = May Be @ Inflection Point
  • 30. 30 • Costs Up to 17% of GDP – @ $2.8T in 2012, +2x as percent of GDP in 35 years • Waste = 27% of Spend – $765B of healthcare spend estimated from excess costs: $210B = unnecessary services; $190B = excess administrative; $55B = missed prevention opportunities; $310B = inefficient delivery of care / fraud / inflated prices (2009) • Employers Carry Big Burden – $620B spend by employers for 150MM Americans (2014E)…costs up 28% vs. 5 years ago…67% CFOs indicate healthcare costs = leading economic concern • Individual Costs Rising – >25% of family income likely to go to healthcare spending in 2015E vs. 18% in 2005…top 5% healthcare consumers (most with multiple chronic illnesses) spent 50% of healthcare dollars (2009)…>50% of personal bankruptcies driven by healthcare costs • Chronic Conditions = +75% of Spend – Most costly = cancer / diabetes / heart disease / hypertension / stroke…1 in 2 Americans has at least 1 chronic condition, 1 in 4 has 2+…32% of Americans obese in 2008, up from 15% in 1990 • Behavior = Root Cause of Many Health Problems – Health risk behaviors cause chronic diseases. 52% of adults did not meet recommendations of physical activity (2011)…50% of those with chronic conditions not complaint with taking medicine to manage disease = $100B on avoidable hospitalizations (2010) Healthcare Realities = Facts – USA… Source: Beth Seidenberg, KPCB General Partner; Lynne Chou, KPCB Partner. Sources: Healthcare costs per Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS). Healthcare waste data per Institute of Medicine. Employers’ healthcare costs per CMS, Kaiser Family Foundation, BAML CFO Outlook Report, Towers Watson. Individual healthcare costs per ChartPack, Leerink & Kaiser. Chronic conditions data per CMS, The New England Journal of Medicine. Behavior data per Centers for Disease Control & New England Journal of Medicine.
  • 31. 31 • Digital Technology Enables Change – Healthcare system has relied on antiquated systems • Government Enabled Change Pushes Technology • HITECH Act – $35B administered by Office of the National Coordinator for Electronic Health Records (EHR) + health information technology in 2013…penalties exist for non-compliance • Affordable Care Act – Coverage expansion in works • Consumerization of Healthcare – Majority (52%) of consumers want to access tools / websites rankings for quality / satisfaction / patients reviews of doctors + hospitals …Healthcare Realities = Reasons for Optimism… Source: Beth Seidenberg, KPCB General Partner; Lynne Chou, KPCB Partner. Sources: ACA data per CBO office. HITECH Act data per HIMSS Report Frost and Sullivan & HealthIT. Consumerization of healthcare data from Deloitte, 2012.
  • 32. 32 • Digitization of Healthcare Happening • Providers Using Fully Functioning EHR – 84% of Hospitals / Academic / Institutional practices…51% (& rising) of office-based practices • Consumers Happy to Communicate via Email – 62% for healthcare concerns • Digital Health Venture Investments Rising – +39% Y/Y to $1.9B (2013, USA) • Quality Over Quantity Incentives Being Implemented • Payers Incentivized to Engage Patients / Improve Care / Outcomes / Reduce Costs • Providers Shifting to Value-Based from Fee-for-Service Payments • Employers Lowering Costs by Offering Services to Improve Engagement / Choices / Care – 46% of employers will enact participatory / outcomes based incentives (like weight loss / cholesterol levels)… By 2015, 60% will offer price transparency tools from health plans • Patient Engagement Rising & Yielding Results • Redbrick Health – employer engagement platform = 4:1 ROI savings per participant • Teladoc – employer focused telemedicine platform = $798 savings per consultation vs. office visit & ER over 30 days • Mango Health – adherence app = 84% Statin adherence vs. 52% market average • WellDoc – chronic disease platform = diabetes app prescription with reimbursement …Healthcare Realities = Green Shoots Data Source: Beth Seidenberg, KPCB General Partner; Lynne Chou, KPCB Partner. Sources: Digitization data per Black Book, Deloitte, & Rock Health. Incentives data per Leerink. Employers lowering costs data per Towers Watson. Company data.
  • 33. 33 RE-IMAGINING CONTINUES 33
  • 34. 34 Re-Imagining Messaging / Communications
  • 35. 35 A Tweet – David Sacks (Yammer CEO / Founder)
  • 36. 36 Line (Japan), 2+ Years MAUs = 280MM Messages / Day = 10B Revenue = $388MM, +5x Y/Y (Q4:13) Snapchat (USA), 2+ Years Messages / Day = 1.2B Viber (Israel), 3+ Years MAUs = 100MM KakaoTalk (Korea), 3+ Years Messages / Day = 5.2B, +24% Y/Y Revenue = $203MM, +4xY/Y Tencent WeChat (China), 3+ Years MAUs = 355MM, +125% Y/Y Global Messaging Ecosystem – Select Players, 2013 WhatsApp (USA), 4+ Years MAUs = 400MM, +100% Y/Y Messages / Day = 50B, +178% Y/Y Global OTT (Over-the-Top) Messaging Services = >1B Users in <5 Years… Source: Publicly disclosed company data for 2013. Note: Snapchat messages / day comprises number of snaps sent per day and number of stories viewed per day.
  • 37. 37 Low HighEdge Weights = Frequency of Communication Nodes = # of Contacts High Broadcasting Fewer Messages to Large Audiences Frequent Interactions with Smaller Group of Close Contacts Evolution of Messaging New Social Graphs… Edges = Potentially More Value than Nodes… Source: Anjney Midha, KPCB Associate; Jared Morgenstern, KPCB Entrepreneur Partner.
  • 38. 38 ‘Visual Web’ Social Networks: Unique Visitors Trend, USA, 3/11 – 2/14 0 20 40 60 80 3/11 8/11 1/12 6/12 11/12 4/13 9/13 2/14 USAUniqueVisitors(MM) Tumblr Pinterest Instagram Vine Snapchat Desktop Only Multi-Platform Evolution of Communications Image + Video Sharing Rising Rapidly Source: Comscore, State of Digital Advertising Q1 2014, 4/14.
  • 39. 39 Re-Imagining Apps
  • 40. 40 First, multi-purpose web apps… …then, multi-purpose mobile apps… …now, single-purpose = ‘there’s an app for that…’ Cindy Cheng Evolution of Apps Internet Unbundling… Source: Megan Quinn, KPCB Partner.
  • 41. 41 We’re entering the age of apps as service layers. These are apps you have on your phone but only open when you know they explicitly have something to say to you. They aren’t for ‘idle browsing,’ they’re purpose-built & informed by contextual signals like hardware sensors, location, history of use & predictive computation. – Matthew Panzarino, TechCrunch, 5/15/14 Foursquare Swarm Runkeeper Breeze Dark Sky WUT …now some apps are disappearing altogether… Evolution of Apps Internet Unbundling = Rise Of Invisible App Source: Matthew Panzarino, Techcrunch.
  • 42. 42 Re-Imagining Distribution Channels & Content
  • 43. 43 • Social Media Traffic Referral Leaders = Facebook / Pinterest / Twitter with estimated 21%, 7%, 1% of global referrals, per Shareaholic, 3/14. • Social Distribution Happens Quickly = Average article reaches half total social referrals in 6.5 hours on Twitter, 9 hours on Facebook, per SimpleReach, 5/14. Source: Shareaholic, 3/14. SimpleReach, 5/14. Note: Traffic referral % is percentage of total traffic referrals across Shareholic network. Social Distribution Leaders = Facebook / Pinterest / Twitter…
  • 44. 44 Top Facebook News Publishers, 4/14 Top Twitter News Publishers, 4/14 7 8 8 8 12 12 15 19 28 39 0 10 20 30 40 Daily Mail The Blaze New York Times The Guardian IJReview NBC Fox News ABC News Huffington Post BuzzFeed Facebook Shares Facebook Likes Facebook Comments 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 Fox News BuzzFeed Forbes The Guardian Time CNN ABC News Mashable New York Times BBC # of Shares (MM)# of Interactions (MM) Social News Content Leaders = BuzzFeed / Huffington Post / ABC News… Source: NewsWhip – Spike, 4/14.
  • 45. 45 BuzzFeed 130MM+ Unique Visitors +3x Y/Y (5/14) >50% Mobile, >75% Social, >50% age 18-34 Re-Imagining Content + Content Delivery = BuzzFeed… Lists / Quizzes / Explainers / Breaking / Video / Mobile Source: Buzzfeed, 5/14. 15 Things You Didn’t Know Your iPhone Could Do 17MM+ views Why I Bought A House In Detroit For $500 1.5MM+ views Photoshopping Real Women Into Cover Models 13MM+ video views What State Do You Actually Belong In? 40MM+ views
  • 46. 46 Re-Imagining Day-to-Day Activities
  • 47. 47 ~70K Bars / Nightclubs, USA Tinder 800MM Swipes per day, +21x Y/Y 11MM Matches per day, +21x Y/Y Re-Imagining How People Meet Source: IBIS World, 5/14. Company data.
  • 48. 48 6MM Guest Stays 550K Listings, +83% Y/Y 11x Ratio Guest Stays / Listings 231MM Buyers, +44% Y/Y 8MM Sellers 29x Ratio $31K / Year Avg to Alibaba’s China Retail Marketplace Sellers 39MM Meal Orders, +74% Y/Y 29K Restaurants, +3X Y/Y 1,367x Ratio $35K / Year Avg to Restaurants Re-Imagining Local Services / Reputation = Leverage + Efficiency All data for 2013. Sources: Company data, SEC filings. Airbnb Listings is total number at year-end. In 2013, Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces comprised of Taobao, Tmall, and Juhuasuan, which generated Gross Merchandise Volume of $248B from 8MM active sellers. GrubHub’s average annual $ to restaurants calculated using 2013 Gross Food Sales totaling $1B+ across 29K restaurants on platform.
  • 49. 49 >47% of Online Transactions Use ‘Free-Shipping,’ vs. 35% Five Years Ago… Same-Day Local Delivery = Next Big Thing… Instacart Amazon Fresh Re-Imagining Grocery Shopping Source: Comscore. Images: Indiana Public Media, Film North Florida; Kearny Hub, Wall Street Journal.
  • 50. 50 USA Music Consumption, 2013 118B 1.3B 172MM 32% -6% -13% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 40 80 120 Music Streams Digital Track Sales Physical Music Sales Y/YGrowth USAMusicUnitsConsumed(B) 2013 Units Y/Y Growth (First Y/Y Decline) Re-Imagining Media (Music) Consumption = Streaming +32%, Digital Track Sales -6% Source: Nielsen & Billboard 2013 US Music Report, 1/14. Note that absolute consumption comparisons are apples-and-oranges as tracks / physical sales are likely played multiple times but data is illustrative as growth rate is key indicator.
  • 51. 51 Re-Imagining Money
  • 52. 52 Re-Imagining Money
  • 53. 53 1 2 3 4 5 11/11 3/12 7/12 11/12 3/13 7/13 11/13 3/14 NumberofBitcoinWallets(MM) Android Bitcoin Wallet Coinbase Multibit Blockchain Number of Bitcoin Wallets by Wallet Provider, 4/14 Fact that ~5MM Bitcoin Wallets (+8x Y/Y) Exist Proves Extraordinary Interest in Cryptocurrencies Source: CoinDesk. Largest wallet providers (Blockchain / MultiBit / Coinbase / Bitcoin Wallet) at ~4.9MM wallets account for majority of Bitcoin wallets created.
  • 54. 54 Re-Imagining an Industry Vertical
  • 55. 55 1) Content = Provided by Consumers + Pros 2) Community = Context & Connectivity Created by & for Users 3) Commerce = Products Tagged & Ingested for Seamless Purchase Internet Trifecta = Critical Mass of Content + Community + Commerce…
  • 56. 56 Houzz – Content (Photos) / Community (Professionals + Consumers) / Commerce (Products), 4/12 – 4/14 Consumers Content (Photos) Commerce (Products) Active Professionals 70K 120K 400K 5.5MM 23MM 3.2MM 2.5MM 400K 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/13 1/14 4/14 …Internet Trifecta = Critical Mass of Content + Community + Commerce… Source: Houzz, Consumer defined as unique monthly users, Active Professional defined as active users of Houzz with a business profile.
  • 57. 57 Inspiration – Photos ~3MM (+230% Y/Y) World’s largest photo database Products 2.5MM (+590%) Discover & purchase Services – Professionals 400K (+198%) Portfolios & reviews Discussions 800K (+225%) Pro & homeowner support / advice Editorial – Guides / Articles 10K (+143%) ‘Wikipedia’ of home design Content Community Commerce …Houzz = Ecosystem for Home Renovation & Design Source: Houzz, 4/14.
  • 58. 58 Biggest Re-Imagination of All = People Enabled With Mobile Devices + Sensors Uploading Troves of Findable & Sharable Data
  • 59. 59 Transparency Instant sharing / communication of many things has potential to make world better / safer place but potential impact to personal privacy will remain on-going challenge… Patterns Mining rising volume of data has potential to yield patterns that help solve basic / previously unsolvable problems but create new challenges related to individual rights… More Data + More Transparency = More Patterns & More Complexity
  • 60. 60 1) Uploadable / Findable / Sharable / Real-Time Data Rising Rapidly 2) Sensor Use Rising Rapidly 3) Processing Costs Falling Rapidly…While The Cloud Rises 4) Beautiful New User Interfaces – Aided by Data-Generating Consumers – Helping Make Data Usable / Useful… 5) Data Mining / Analytics Tools Improving & Helping Find Patterns 6) Early Emergence of Data / Pattern-Driven Problem Solving Big Data Trends
  • 61. 61 Uploadable / Sharable / Findable Real-Time Data Rising Rapidly
  • 62. 62 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD #ofPhotosUploaded&SharedperDay (MM) Flickr Snapchat Instagram Facebook WhatsApp Daily Number of Photos Uploaded & Shared on Select Platforms, 2005 – 2014YTD (2013, 2014 only) Photos Alone = 1.8B+ Uploaded & Shared Per Day… Growth Remains Robust as New Real-Time Platforms Emerge Source: KPCB estimates based on publicly disclosed company data, 2014 YTD data per latest as of 5/14.
  • 63. 63 Pinterest • 750MM+ cumulative Boards (4/14) • 30B+ cumulative Pins • +50% Pin growth vs. 10/13 Eventbrite • $1B gross ticket sales in 2013 (+60% Y/Y) • 58MM tickets sold (+61% Y/Y) • 1MM events in 187 countries MyFitnessPal • 65MM registered users (+50% Y/Y, 5/14) • 100MM+ pounds lost by users since inception Github • 13MM repositories in 2013 (+100% Y/Y) • 10K users added per weekday IMGUR • 130MM MAUs (3/14) • 3B page views per month • 1.5MM images uploaded & 1.3B images viewed per day Fitbit • 47B 2.4T steps (2011 2013)… Distance = Earth to Saturn Uploadable / Sharable / Findable – Mojo Update Source: Company data.
  • 64. 64 Tinder • 800MM swipes per day (+21x Y/Y, 5/14) • 11MM matches per day (+21x Y/Y) Snapchat • 700MM+ snaps shared per day (4/14) • 500MM stories viewed per day WhatsApp • 50B messages sent per day (2/14) • 700MM photos per day (4/14) • 100MM videos per day Uploadable / Sharable / Not Findable* – Mojo Update *Note: “Not findable” = uploaded content not searchable / publicly available Source: Company data.
  • 65. 65 2/3rd’s of Digital Universe Content = Consumed / Created by Consumers …Video Watching, Social Media Usage, Image Sharing… 3 6 9 12 15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Zetabytes(ZB) >4ZB (+50% Y/Y) 13ZB (+40% Y/Y) ‘Digital Universe’ Information Growth = Robust… +50%, 2013 Note: 1 petabyte = 1MM gigabytes, 1 zetabyte = 1MM petabytes. Source: IDC Digital Universe, data as of 5/14.
  • 66. 66 Sensor Use Rising Rapidly
  • 67. 67 iPhone (2007) 3 Sensors iPhone 5s (2013) 5 Sensors Galaxy S (2010) 3 Sensors • Gyro / fingerprint / barometer / hall (recognizes whether cover is open/closed) / RGB ambient light / gesture / heart rate / accelerometer / proximity / compass Galaxy S5 (2014) 10 Sensors • 3-axis gyro / fingerprint / accelerometer / proximity / ambient light • Accelerometer / proximity / ambient light • Accelerometer / proximity / compass Sensors = Big / Broad Business, Rapid Growth, Rising Proliferation IN Devices… Note: Sensor count for illustrative purposes only – Apple & Samsung sensor count methodology may differ. Source: Publicly available data from Apple & Samsung, and third party reviews. Apple Samsung
  • 68. 68 523 525 788 1,190 1,914 2,919 4,362 6,060313 549 775 727 802 1,202 1,726 2,765 4,174 6,039 7,961 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GlobalMEMSUnitShipments(MM) Other Gaming Cameras Wearables Laptops Headsets Media Tablets Mobile Phones Global MEMS Unit Shipments by Consumer Electronics Device, 2006 – 2013 …Sensors = Big / Broad Business (+32% Y/Y to 8B) Rising Proliferation OF Devices Source: IHS Consumer & Mobile MEMS Market Tracker, April 2014. MEMS = microelectromechanical systems. Includes sensors + actuators (a type of motor that is responsible for moving or controlling a mechanism or system, such as an autofocus system in a camera).
  • 69. 69 Processing Costs Falling Rapidly… While The Cloud + Accessibility Rise
  • 70. 70 $527 $0.05 $0.01 $0.10 $1.00 $10.00 $100.00 $1,000.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 $per1MMtransistors Global Compute Cost Trends Decreasing cost / performance curve enables computational power @ core of digital infrastructure… Note: Y-axis on graph is logarithmic scale. Source: John Hagel, Deloitte, 5/14. Compute Costs Declining = 33% Annually, 1990-2013…
  • 71. 71 Decreasing cost / performance of digital storage enables creation of more / richer digital information… $569 $0.02 $0.01 $0.10 $1.00 $10.00 $100.00 $1,000.00 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 $perGigabyte Global Storage Cost Trends Note: Y-axis on graph is logarithmic scale. Source: John Hagel, Deloitte, 5/14. …Storage Costs Declining = 38% Annually, 1992-2013…
  • 72. 72 $1,245 $16 $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $per1,000Mbps Global Bandwidth Cost Trends Declining cost / performance of bandwidth enables faster collection & transfer of data to facilitate richer connections / interactions… Note: Y-axis on graph is logarithmic scale. Source: John Hagel, Deloitte, 5/14. …Bandwidth Costs Declining = 27% Annually, 1999-2013…
  • 73. 73 $430 $335 $300 $350 $400 $450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average Global Smartphone Pricing Trends Smartphone prices continue to decline, increasing availability to masses… Source: IDC, 5/14. …Smartphone Costs Declining = 5% Annually, 2008-2013
  • 74. 74 Amazon Web Services (AWS) Leading Cloud Charge… 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2013 NumberofAmazonS3Objects(B) Objects Stored in Amazon S3* (B) *Note: S3 is AWS’ storage product and used as proxy for AWS scale / growth . Source: Company data. …While The Cloud Rises
  • 75. 75 Beautiful New User Interfaces – Aided by Data-Generating Consumers – Helping Make Data Usable / Useful…
  • 76. 76 …Challenging Non-Cloud Business Models Startups – Often Helped by Crowdsourcing – Often Don’t Have Same Challenges with Error-Prone Legacy Data New Companies – With New Data from New Device Types – Doing Old Things in New Ways & Growing Super Fast
  • 77. 77 Yellow Pages Yelp Re-Imagining User Interfaces – Finding a Local Business Image: wordwatch.com.
  • 78. 78 Booking Hotel Room Airbnb Re-Imagining User Interfaces – Finding a Place to Stay Image: iTunes.
  • 79. 79 Hailing Cab Uber 32 min Re-Imagining User Interfaces – Organized Logistics / People Moving Images: Flickr – KayVee, CultofMac.
  • 80. 80 Driving in Traffic Waze Re-Imagining User Interfaces – Managing Traffic With Crowdsourcing Images: THEMETAQ, streettrafficapp.
  • 81. 81 Satellite Radio Spotify Re-Imagining User Interfaces – Finding Music Images: Spotify.
  • 82. 82 Amazon Fire TVTV Remote Control Re-Imagining User Interfaces – Finding Video With Voice Images: idownloadblog, diytrade.com.
  • 83. 83 R.I.P. Bad User Interfaces Source: John Maeda, KPCB Design Partner, 5/14.
  • 84. 84 Data Mining / Analytics Tools Improving & Helping Find Patterns
  • 85. 85 Significant Portion (34%) of IDC Digital Universe Data = Useful – Derived from embedded systems / data processing / social media / photos / sounds… Small Portion (7%) Data = Tagged – Fastest growing segment of valuable data comes from Internet of Things (IoT) – billions of sensors / intelligence systems capturing / sending data, increasingly in real- time… Immaterial Portion (1%) Data = Analyzed – Newer tech companies are making it easier to understand / make use of increasing amount of data… 34% (& Rising) of Data in ‘Digital Universe’ = Useful but Only 7% Tagged…1% Analyzed Source: IDC, 5/14.
  • 86. 86 SnapLogic Cloud Integration / Data Transmission • 500MM+ machine / device scans integrated per day • 160+ data / cloud connectors on SnapStore • +128% Y/Y subscription revenue, 2013 Ayasdi Automated Insight Discovery • Auto extracts business insights from datasets with 1MM+ features • 120K hours saved of manual data analysis in 2013 • +451% Y/Y bookings growth, 2013 AppDynamics App Performance Monitoring • 500B Web / mobile transactions instrumented / tracked • 1.4MM hours saved waiting on apps • 1,200 enterprise customers Dropcam Home Monitoring • ~100B video frames processed per hour • +300% Y/Y revenue growth, 2013 Netflix Media Personalization / Discovery • Terabytes of user data analyzed to generate personalized media recommendations • 44MM subscribers (+25% Y/Y, 2013) Jawbone Health Wearable • 100MM nights of sleep logged = 27K years • 50B activity data points crunched per week • 1MM personalized insights per week Data Mining / Analytics Tools that Mine / Organize Data = Playing Catch Up to Demand & Growing Fast Source: Company data.
  • 87. 87 Early Emergence of Data / Pattern-Driven Problem Solving
  • 88. 88 Nest Energy • 2B+ Kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy saved since 2011* • Reduces heating / cooling costs up to 20%…an estimated annual savings of $173 per thermostat Wealthfront Investment Management • +4.6% return vs. average mutual fund** • 200K risk questionnaires completed • 650K free trades, saving clients $5MM+ • 10K+ clients • $800MM+ AUM, +700% since 1/13 Automatic Connected Car • Collects / analyzes hundreds of millions of data points daily • Provides personalized feedback to drivers, saving up to 30% in fuel costs • Discovered driving over 70 MPH saves <5% time, but wastes $550 gas / year Zephyr Health Healthcare & Life Sciences • Hundreds of millions healthcare data points ingested / organized (+192% Q/Q, Q3:13) • 3,500+ independent life sciences sources used daily (+159% Q/Q & accelerating), spanning all major disease areas • +111% Y/Y contracted revenue growth, 2013 OpenGov Government Financials • Compiles data of 37K US governments • Real-time queries across millions of rows of transactions • Adding new paying government customer every 4 days (& accelerating) Google Voice Search Voice Recognition • Uses neural nets to reduce speech recognition errors by 25% • Used by 1/6 of Google’s U.S. mobile users Big Data = Being Used to Solve Big Problems *Based on Nest comparison of actual schedules and set points to a hypothetical (holding constant temperature). **Includes fees + underperformance; client savings of $5MM+ assumes $8 per trade retail. Source: Company data.
  • 89. 89 Accurate diagnosis is foundation for choosing right treatments for patients & clinical lab tests provide critical information health care providers use in ~70% of decisions* Genetic & genomic testing can be at heart of a new paradigm of [precision] medicine that is evidence-based & rooted in quantitative science** Cost / Time to Sequence Genome Down to $1,000 / 24 Hours – Treasure Trove of Patterns Will Rise Rapidly *UK Department of Health. ** American Clinical Laboratory Association / BattelleTechnology Partnership Practice. Image: Illumina. Note: Genome sequencing data per Eric Schaldt. $1,000 cost is price of sequencing a genome at 30x coverage in the Mount Sinai Genome Core, 5/14.
  • 90. 90 Biggest Re-Imagination of All = People Enabled With Mobile Devices + Sensors Uploading Troves of Findable & Sharable Data = Still Early & Evolving Rapidly
  • 91. 91 SCREEN + VIDEO GROWTH = STILL EARLY INNINGS 91
  • 92. 92 1) Screens Proliferating 2) [Traditional] Remote Controls Disappearing 3) Apps Replacing Channels 4) Internet TV Replacing Linear TV Future of TV – Reed Hastings (Netflix CEO / Founder) Source: Netflix Long Term View.
  • 93. 93 Screens Proliferating
  • 94. 94 Screens Today = You Screen…I Screen…We All Screen Image: Telegraph.
  • 95. 95 Global TV vs. PC (Desktop + Notebook) vs. Mobile (Smartphone + Tablet) Shipments, 1999 – 2013 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs) TV PC (Desktop + Notebook) Mobile (Smartphone + Tablet) Smartphones Tablets Mobile (Smartphone + Tablet) Shipments = 4-5x Unit Volume of TV & PC…Just 10 Years Since Inception Sources: TV unit shipments per NPD DisplaySearch (2004-2013 data) and Philips (1999-2003 data). PC (laptop + desktop) and smartphone + tablet unit shipments per Morgan Stanley Research.
  • 96. 96 Daily Distribution of Screen Minutes Across Countries (Mins) 89 134 125 98 95 104 129 127 98 96 93 111 124 125 132 148 104 98 111 115 102 78 114 131 147 69 113 89 99 132 85 83 68 112 106 97 77 94 132 95 103 109 97 102 65 97 114 158 122 126 99 96 123 80 103 160 146 161 143 117 109 79 135 90 98 124 137 144 90 162 163 132 122 132 174 111 166 98 119 127 189 167 165 193 151 168 149 170 174 181 34 30 15 48 52 51 36 14 61 31 32 39 53 37 33 55 30 66 70 63 43 95 35 39 43 69 66 59 115 110 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Italy France Japan Hungary Slovakia Canada Germany South Korea Poland India Mexico Turkey Spain Australia Kenya UK Argentina Russia Czech South Africa Saudi Thailand Colombia Nigeria USA Vietnam Brazil China Phillipines Indonesia Screen Minutes TV Laptop + PC Smartphone Tablet Smartphones = Most Viewed / Used Medium in Many Countries, 2014 Source: Milward Brown AdReaction, 2014. Note: Survey asked respondents “Roughly how long did you spend yesterday…watching television (not online) / using the internet on a laptop or PC / on a smartphone or tablet?” Survey respondents were age 16-44 across 30 countries who owned or had access to a TV and a smartphone and/or tablet. The population of the 30 countries surveyed in the study collectively represent ~70% of the world population.
  • 97. 97 17% 12% 14% 18% 23% 41% 29% 44% 66% 10% 9% 7% 12% 29% 29% 27% 24% 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Watching Certain TV Program Because of Something Read on Social Media Voting or Sending Comments to a Live Program Buying A Product / Service Being Advertised Reading Discussion About TV Program on Social Media Sites Emailing / Texting Friends About Program Looking Up Info on Actors, Plot, Athletes, etc. Checking Sports Scores Shopping Surfing the Web Smartphone Tablet What Connected Device Owners are Doing While Watching TV, USA Mobile Owners (84%) Use Devices While Watching TV… ~2x Higher Over 2 Years Source: Nielsen Connected Devices Report, Q3:13. Note: Data gathered from USA general population sample 13+ years old with 9,448 respondents who own a Tablet, e-Reader, Smartphone, or Streaming Capable Device. Study conducted in 9/13.
  • 98. 98 Average Minutes per Day Following the Olympics, by Device, 2012 Olympics Fans 259 268 300 367 50 59 5551 40 47 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 TV Only TV + PC TV + PC + Phone TV + PC + Phone + Tablet MinutesSpent perDayFollowingOlympics TV PC (Desktop + Notebook) Phone Tablet Media Engagement Rises With Screen Usage = 2x Higher for 4 Screen Users vs. Solo TV During Olympics Source: ComScore Single Source Multi-Platform Study, London Olympics Lab for NBC, 7/12. Note: Data based on total day time spent. N = 720 panelists that use multiple devices and are Olympic fans.
  • 99. 99 5 Hours of TV Screen Media = 4 Hours of Content + 1 Hour of Commercials 5 Hours of Multiple Screen Media Smartphone (35%) + TV (27%) + PC (26%) + Tablet (12%) = >5 Hours of Content? vs. More Screens = Consumers Get More Content in Less Time? Sources: Millward Brown AdReaction, 2014. Nielsen TV Advertising Audiences Report, 5/14. Note: Average global daily screen media time = 417 minutes, of which 147 are on smartphones, 113 on TV, 108 on PC (desktop + notebook), 50 on Tablets. In 2013, an average of 14 minutes of commercials were shown for each hour of Network TV Programming.
  • 100. 100 [Traditional] Remote Controls Disappearing
  • 101. 101 Then… …Now Re-Imagining Remote Controls = The ‘Now’ = A New IP-Enabled Search Engine Images: eBay, YouTube.
  • 102. 102 As Smartphones Eclipsed Feature Phones… Smart TV Adapters + Smart TVs = Game Changers for Internet-Enablement of Screens (Big & Small)
  • 103. 103 Company / Product Launch Date Amazon Fire TV 4/14 Google Chromecast 7/13 Roku 5/08 Apple TV 1/07 Nintendo Wii Nintendo Wii U 12/06 Sony PlayStation 3 Sony PlayStation 4 11/06 Microsoft Xbox 360 Microsoft Xbox One 11/05 Old New Smart TV Adapters = Tens of Millions of Users Google Chromecast + Amazon Fire TV Raise Bar Source: Company data.
  • 104. 104 Smart TV Units Shipped, Installed Base, & Shipment Mix 2008 – 2013, Global 7 14 27 50 72 87 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 0 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SmartTVsShippedas%ofTVShipments (%) GlobalSmartTVUnitsShipmentorInstalled Base(MM) Smart TV Units Shipped Smart TV Units Installed Base % of Global TV Units Shipped Smart TV Shipments = Rising % of TVs Shipped… 39% = 2013…Still <10% Installed Base Source: Generator Research, 2014. Note: Smart TVs defined as internet-enabled television sets and exclude connected devices or adapters that stream content to television sets, such as game consoles or hybrid set-top boxes.
  • 105. 105 Apps Replacing Channels
  • 106. 106 ESPN • 34MM (52%) ESPN digital users access ESPN just on smartphones / tablets = 48% of time spent on ESPN digital properties, 4/14 BBC • 234MM requests for TV programs on iPlayer in 2/14, +21% Y/Y • 46% of requests from mobile / tablet vs. 35% Y/Y Linear TV Channels Increasingly = On-Demand Apps HBO • 1,000+ hours of video content Sources: ESPN, BBC, HBO.
  • 107. 107 TV Guide YouTube – Search Bar Comcast – X1 Guide Internet = Evolved from Directory to Search / Apps… TV = Evolving from Directory to Apps / Search Images: YouTube, Comcast, mag+
  • 108. 108 There’s a Bevy of New Channels on Premier Distribution Network YouTube… Of Which 40% (& Rising) # of Users Are Mobile
  • 109. 109 Channel Subscribers (MM) Y/Y Growth (%) Music 85 166% Gaming 79 165% Sports 78 164% News 35 213% Popular 28 133% Spotlight 22 342% Movies 18 195% TV Shows 12 106% Education 10 — Music SportsGaming News SpotlightPopular Movies EducationTV Shows YouTube Channels = Huge Reach + Growth Source: YouTube. Note: Y/Y growth rates as of 5/14.
  • 110. 110 Consumers Love Video – Long-Form & More / More Short-Form
  • 111. 111 Video Game Commentator PewDiePie 26MM+ subscribers, +230% Y/Y Comedy Duo Smosh 17MM+ subscribers, +81% Y/Y Spanish Comedian HolaSoyGerman 17MM+ subscribers, +157% Y/Y Comedian nigahiga 12MM+ subscribers, +50% Y/Y Make-Up Artist Michelle Phan 6MM+ subscribers, +70% Y/Y Style and Beauty Blogger Bethany Mota 6MM+ subscribers, +180% Y/Y Every New Medium New Stars…YouTube Top Videos = 6 – 26MM Subs…Top 10 Video Average Duration = ~7 Minutes Source: YouTube, 5/14. Note: Y/Y growth rates as of 5/14. Select Top YouTube channels that primarily feature a new artist. Excludes channels that aggregate videos around specific topics.
  • 112. 112 #1 = Nike Football @ 49MM+ Views #5 = “Unsung Hero” (Thai Life) @ 12MM+ Views #4 = Castrol Footkhana @ 14MM+ Views #2 = Dove: Patches @ 20MM+ Views #3 = Evian Spider Man @ 16MM+ Views Consumers Loving Best Ads = The Art of Short-Form . Source: YouTube
  • 113. 113 YouTube’s TrueView Ads = ‘Cost-per View’ Video Marketing AdWords Dynamically Places Video Ad Content on Google / YouTube Users Can Skip • Ads = Great Content – Transformation potential from commercials users want to skip to short-form content users choose to watch • Advertisers Win – Better results as only pay for users who are engaged & watch video…improves direct click-through options with consumers • Data – As YouTube collects data on how users engage with ads, it continues to improve the user experience and advertiser ROI Evian Baby & Me = Most Watched YouTube Ad Of 2013 = 87MM+ views Ads the Digital Way… Google TrueView = Game-Changer Source: YouTube.
  • 114. 114 An audience tunes in when they’re told to, a fanbase chooses when and what to watch… …An audience changes the channel when their show is over… …A fanbase shares, comments, curates, creates… Fans Trump Audiences – Alex Carloss (YouTube)
  • 115. 115 Consumers Voting for Social Video / TV
  • 116. 116 Twitch = Top Live Video Streaming Site by Volume, USA, 4/14 Twitch 45MM MAUs (12/13) vs. 8MM Three Years Ago (7/11) 12B Minutes Watched / Month, +2x Y/Y 900K Broadcasters / Month, +3x Y/Y Rank Site Volume (%) 1 Twitch 44% 2 WWE 18% 3 Ustream 11% 4 MLB.com 7% 5 ESPN 6% New Genre(s) of Video = ‘Spectator Gaming’* – Players Players / Active Spectators Source: Company data. Qwilt, 4/14. *ReadWrite
  • 117. 117 Social TV = Can Provide Advertiser Lift
  • 118. 118 40% 7% 16% 53% 18% 30% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Ad Recall Brand Favorability (% Lift) Purchase Intent (% Lift) TV Only Viewers TV x Twitter Viewers TV Only Viewers vs. No Recent TV TV x Twitter Viewers (Tweeters) vs. No Recent TV TV Only Viewers vs. No Recent TV TV x Twitter Viewers (Tweeters) vs. No Recent TV Impact of TV Ads on Viewers – TV with Twitter vs. TV without Twitter TV + Twitter = Boosts Ad Impact Source: Twitter x TV Study, Millward Brown Digital, 12/13. Note: TV x Twitter users defined as people who used Twitter while watching TV. N = 7,500+ respondents who were part of a study to assess impact of TV ads among people who watched TV with and without Twitter.
  • 119. 119 Consumers Voting for Personalization
  • 120. 120 A Father of Two A Female Millennial Netflix = Personalization… Images: Screenshot of Netflix homepages of two subscribers.
  • 121. 121 Younger Consumers Voting for On-Demand Video
  • 122. 122 12% 34%12% 10% 17% 15% 59% 41% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Non-Millennials Millennials Live TV DVR Viewing On-Demand Online Distribution of Total TV Time Millennials vs. Non-Millennials, USA Millennials = 34% of TV Time Online, ~3x > Non-Millennials Source: Verizon Digital Media Study, 3/14. Note: Study encompassed quantitative survey of 1,000 USA consumers (800 millennials age 16-34 and 200 non-millennials age 35-64). Data collected on 11/13.
  • 123. 123 Internet TV Replacing Linear TV – Early Stages of TV Golden Age With Epic Content Creation / Consumption / Curation / Distribution
  • 124. 124 Circa 1950 TV Set (Live) = 100% of viewing Device Share of TV Content, USA, 1/14 57% 23% 10% 6% 4% TV Set (Live) DVR / VOD / DVD Connected TV Computer Mobile Device Consumers Increasingly Expect to Watch TV Content… On Own Terms Source: Horowitz Associates, State of Cable and Digital Media Report, 4/14. Note: Study based on 1,200 interviews in 1/14 among heads of households (18+) who watch any kind of TV. Live TV defined as watching linear programming that is not time-shifted from original programming time intended. TV Content defined as any type of video content. Computer includes desktop + notebook. Mobile includes smartphone + tablet. Circa 2014
  • 125. 125 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 08/11 11/11 02/12 05/12 08/12 11/12 02/13 05/13 08/13 11/13 MobileShareofOnlineVideo(%) Mobile Share of Online Video Plays (%) Mobile Share of Online Video Time (%) Mobile Share of Online Video Plays and Time, 8/11 – 12/13, Global Mobile = More & More Video Consumption… 22% (+2x Y/Y) of Online Video Time Spent Source: Ooyala Global Video Index. Data based on anonymized viewing habits of nearly 200MM unique viewers in over 130 countries and data from Ooyala’s video publishers, which include hundred of broadcasters and operators.
  • 126. 126 1) Screens Proliferating 2) [Traditional] Remote Controls Disappearing 3) Apps Replacing Channels 4) Internet TV Replacing Linear TV Future of TV – Reed Hastings (Netflix CEO / Founder) Source: Netflix Long Term View.
  • 127. 127 CHINA’S EPIC SHARE GAINS 127
  • 128. 128 Percent of Global GDP, 1820 – 2013, USA vs. Europe vs. China vs. India vs. Latin America 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% %ofGlobalGDP USA Europe China India Latin America 27% 16% 33% 16% 2% 19% 16% 6% 9% 2% Global GDP = China Rise Continues Source: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen, OECD, data post 1980 based on IMF data (GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity).
  • 129. 129 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 %ofTotalChinaInternetUsers ChinaMobileInternetUsers(MM) China Mobile Internet Users (MM) % of Total China Internet Users China Mobile Internet Users as % of Total Internet Users, 2007 – 2013 500MM (80%) of China Internet Users = Mobile… More Critical Mass than Any Place in World Source: CNNIC.
  • 130. 130 Top 10 Internet Properties by Global Monthly Unique Visitors, 1/13 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Tencent Apple Glam Media Ask.com Amazon.com Wikipedia Yahoo! Facebook Microsoft Google Monthly Unique Visitors (MMs) USA Users International Users 1/13 – 9 of Top 10 Global Internet Properties ‘Made in USA’… 79% of Their Users Outside America Source: comScore, 1/13.
  • 131. 131 Top 10 Internet Properties by Global Monthly Unique Visitors, 3/14 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Amazon.com Sohu Tencent Baidu Alibaba Wikipedia Yahoo! Facebook Microsoft Google Monthly Unique Visitors (MMs) USA Users International Users 3/14 – 6 of Top 10 Global Internet Properties ‘Made in USA’… >86% of Their Users Outside America…China Rising Fast Source: comScore, 3/14.
  • 132. 132 China = Mobile Commerce Innovation Leader Source: Liang Wu, Hillhouse Capital* *Disclaimer – The information provided in the following slides is for informational and illustrative purposes only. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any person with respect to the accuracy, reliability, correctness or completeness of this Information or its contents or any oral or written communication in connection with it. A business relationship, arrangement, or contract by or among any of the businesses described herein may not exist at all and should not be implied or assumed from the information provided. The information provided herein by Hillhouse Capital does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy, and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of, any security or interest offered, sponsored, or managed by Hillhouse Capital or its affiliates.
  • 133. 133 WeChat ‘My Bank Card’ Page Order taxi – powered by Didi – pay via WeChat Payment New Year Lucky Money – fun / social game to incentivize users to link bank cards to WeChat Payment… 5MM users used on Chinese New Year Eve, 2014Find restaurants / daily group buy deals – powered by Dianping – pay via WeChat Payment Manage money / invest in money market funds via WeChat Payment Tencent WeChat = 400MM Mobile Active Chat Users… Increasingly Using Payments + Commerce Source: Tencent, Liang Wu (Hillhouse Captial).
  • 134. 134 WeChat Service Accounts = Interactive Accounts with Communication / CRM / Ordering Capability Personal Banker Private ChefShopping Assistant Grocery Getter China Merchant Bank allows customers to check & repay balances and ask live questions via WeChat Hahajing (a chain deli restaurant) allows customers to order & deliver food via WeChat Mogujie / Meilishuo (fashion discovery & shopping sites) give customers tailored suggestions via WeChat Xiaonongnv (a grocery delivery startup) prepares fresh groceries & delivers to your address via WeChat Tencent WeChat Services = Virtual Assistant Source: Liang Wu (Hillhouse Captial).
  • 135. 135 350K 2MM 3MM 5MM 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan-10 Feb-9 Feb-24 Mar-27 RegisteredUsers(MM) DailyTaxiTripsBooked(000) Daily Taxi Trips Booked (000) Registered Users (MM) Didi Taxi, Daily Taxi Trips Booked, 1/10/2014 – 3/27/2014 Didi Taxi – 100MM+ Users = 5MM+ Daily Rides, +15x in 77 Days… Driven by WeChat Payment Integration & Subsidy* Note: * Subsidy ranges from $1-3 per ride. Estimated total subsidy during this period was ~$233MM. Source: Didi, Liang Wu (Hillhouse Captial).
  • 136. 136 • Simple, fun-to-use mobile product • Built on top of Alipay – the most popular online payment platform in China with 160MM+ accounts. • Technology enables same-day settlement. $1B $9B $31B $89B $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 Launch (5/29/13) 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 AssetUnderManagement($B) • $0 $89B asset under management in 10 months • Top 3 global money market fund by assets under management (AUM) Alipay Yu’E Bao Assets Under Management, 5/13 to C1:14 Alipay Yu’E Bao – Mobile Money Market Fund Launch… Drove $89B AUM* in 10 Months *Note: AUM is asset under management, Fidelity and Vanguard manage more assets than Alipay’s Yu’E Bao. Source: Alipay, Liang Wu (Hillhouse Capital).
  • 137. 137 PUBLIC COMPANY TRENDS 137
  • 138. 138 Rank Company Region 2014 Market Value ($B) 2013 Revenue ($MM) 1 Apple USA $529 $173,992 2 Google USA 377 59,825 3 Facebook USA 157 7,872 4 Amazon USA 144 74,452 5 Tencent China 132 9,983 6 eBay USA 66 16,047 7 Priceline USA 63 6,793 8 Baidu China 59 5,276 9 Yahoo! USA 35 4,680 10 Salesforce.com USA 33 4,071 11 JD.com China 29 11,454 12 Yahoo! Japan Japan 25 3,641 13 Netflix USA 24 4,375 14 Naver Korea 23 2,190 15 LinkedIn USA 19 1,529 16 Twitter USA 18 665 17 Rakuten Japan 16 4,932 18 Liberty Interactive USA 14 11,252 19 TripAdvisor USA 13 945 20 Qihoo 360 China 11 671 Total $1,787 $404,644 Global Internet Public Market Leaders = Apple / Google / Facebook / Amazon / Tencent… Source: CapIQ. 2014 market value data as of 5/23/2014. Note: Colors denote current market value relative to Y/Y market value. Green = higher. Red = lower. Purple = newly public.
  • 139. 139 $6B (M&A) $3B* (Investments) $24B (M&A) $7B* (Investments) $5B (M&A) $5B* (Investments) $3B (1/14) Volume, 2012- 2014YTD ($B) Select Transactions, 2012-2014YTD Company / Market Cap ($B) Facebook $157B Tencent $132B Google $377B Alibaba TBD $400MM (1/14) $1B (6/13) $160MM* (3/14) $258MM (8/13) $100MM* (3/14) $2B (3/14) $1B (4/12) $19B+ (2/14) $3B (3/14) $500MM (3/14) $1B (4/13) $1B+ (2/14) $800MM (3/14) $1B (4/14) DeepMind Cloudera Oculus CJ Games AutoNavi Youku Tudou Nest DocuSign WhatsApp JD.com Weibo ChinaVision Waze Uber Instagram …Global Internet Leaders = Intense M&A + Investment Activity Source: Morgan Stanley IBD & public filings. CapIQ, 2014 market value data as of 5/23/2014. Note: Includes investments that corporations and their subsidiaries/affiliates have made in companies. Google’s Docusign investment represents the latest round; however, the Company had been a previous investor. *Some data may include entire funding round, of which a portion may be attributable to investors other than the Company listed here. $429MM (7/13) Activision Blizzard
  • 140. 140 ONE MORE THING(S)… 140
  • 141. 141 From One Extreme To the Other…
  • 142. 142 Live Streaming = Oculus Rift-Enabled Drones? Image: Mashable.
  • 143. 143 Re-Imagining Global Access to Internet? Source: Hola.
  • 144. 144 KPCB Partners Especially Alex Tran / Cindy Cheng / Alex Kurland who helped take spurts of ideas and turn them into something we hope is presentable / understandable… Participants in Evolution of Internet Connectivity From creators to consumers who keep us on our toes 24×7… Walt & Kara For continuing to do what you do so well… Thanks…
  • 145. 145 RAN OUTTA TIME THOUGHTS / APPENDIX 145
  • 146. 146 IMMIGRATION UPDATE REPORT: http://www.kpcb.com/file/kpcb-immigration-in-america-the-shortage-of-high-skilled-workers 146
  • 147. 147 World Trade as % of World GDP, 1960 – 2013 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 WorldTradeas%ofGDP Global Economies / People = Increasingly Connected / Co-Dependent Source: Trade data per World Trade Organization (WTO), GDP data per United Nations (UN). Note: World trade calculated as the sum of all countries’ imports (or exports). The biggest trading partners of USA includes EU nations, Canada, China, Mexico, Japan and South Korea.
  • 148. 148 Founders / Co-Founders of Top 25 USA Public Tech Companies, Ranked by Market Capitalization 60% of Top 25 Tech Companies Founded by 1st and 2nd Generation Americans = 1.2MM Employees, 2013 Source: CapIQ, Factset as of 5/14. “The ‘New American’ Fortune 500”, a report by the Partnership for a New American Economy; “American Made, The Impact of Immigrant Founders & Professionals on U.S. Corporations.” *Note: while Andy Grove (from Hungary) is not a co-founder of Intel, he joined as COO on the day it was incorporated. **Francisco D’souza is a person of Indian origin born in Kenya. Rank Company Mkt Cap ($MM) LTM Rev ($MM) Employees 1st or 2nd Gen Immigrant Founder / Co-Founder Generation 1 Apple $529,000 $176,035 80,300 Steve Jobs 2nd-Gen, Syria 2 Google 376,536 62,294 47,756 Sergey Brin 1st-Gen, Russia 3 Microsoft 331,408 83,347 99,000 — — 4 IBM 188,205 98,827 431,212 Herman Hollerith 2nd-Gen, Germany 5 Oracle 187,942 37,902 120,000 Larry Ellison / Bob Miner 2nd-Gen, Russia / 2nd-Gen, Iran 6 Facebook 157,448 8,916 6,337 Eduardo Saverin 1st-Gen, Brazil 7 Amazon.com 143,683 78,123 117,300 Jeff Bezos 2nd-Gen, Cuba 8 Qualcomm 134,827 25,712 31,000 Andrew Viterbi 1st-Gen, Italy 9 Intel 130,867 52,892 107,600 — * — 10 Cisco 125,608 47,202 75,049 — — 11 eBay 65,927 16,561 33,500 Pierre Omidyar 1st-Gen, France 12 Hewlett-Packard 63,903 111,820 317,500 William Hewlett — 13 Priceline 62,767 7,133 9,500 Jay Walker — 14 EMC 54,458 23,314 63,900 Roger Marino 2nd-Gen, Italy 15 Texas Instruments 49,920 12,303 32,209 Cecil Green / J. Erik Jonsson 1st-Gen, UK / 2nd-Gen, Sweden 16 VMware 41,549 5,376 14,300 Edouard Bugnion 1st-Gen, Switzerland 17 Automatic Data Processing 38,014 11,958 60,000 Henry Taub 2nd-Gen, Poland 18 Yahoo! 35,258 4,673 12,200 Jerry Yang 1st-Gen, Taiwan 19 salesforce.com 32,783 4,405 13,300 — — 20 Adobe Systems 32,004 4,047 11,847 — — 21 Cognizant Technology 29,583 9,245 171,400 Francisco D’souza / Kumar Mahadeva 1st-Gen, India** / 1st-Gen, Sri Lanka 22 Micron 29,253 13,310 30,900 — 23 Netflix 24,120 4,621 2,327 — — 24 Intuit 22,595 4,426 8,000 — — 25 Sandisk 21,325 6,341 5,459 Eli Harari 1st-Gen, Israel Total Founded by 1st or 2nd Gen Immigrants $2,053,676 $577,580 1,226,873
  • 149. 149 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NumberofVisasIssued(000s) Number of Student Visas (F1) vs. Employment (H-1B) Visas Issued per Year, 1992 – 2013 F1 Student Visa Issued H-1B Employment Visa Issued ~100K Difference ~380K Difference 85K H-1B Visas Subject to Cap USA Sending More Qualified Foreign Students Home Post Graduation – 3.5x Rise in Student & Employment Visa Issuance Gap Over Decade Source: U.S. Department of State, 5/14.
  • 150. 150 USA, INC. UPDATE REPORT: http://www.kpcb.com/usainc/USA_Inc.pdf VIDEO: http://www.kpcb.com/insights/2011-usa-inc-video 150
  • 151. 151 USA Inc. Profit & Loss Statement, F1998 / F2003 / F2008 / F2013 USA Inc. Income Statement, F2013 – Revenue (Taxes) +13%…Expenses -2%…-24% Net Margin F1998 F2003 F2008 F2013 Comments Revenue ($B) $1,722 $1,783 $2,524 $2,775 On average, revenue grew 3% Y/Y over the Y/Y Growth 9% -4% -2% 13% past 15 years Individual Income Taxes* $829 $794 $1,146 $1,316 Largest driver of revenue % of Revenue 48% 45% 45% 47% Social Insurance Taxes $572 $713 $900 $948 Payroll tax on Social Security & Medicare % of Revenue 33% 40% 36% 34% Corporate Income Taxes* $189 $132 $304 $274 Fluctuates significantly with economic conditions % of Revenue 11% 7% 12% 10% Other $133 $144 $174 $237 Includes estate & gift taxes / duties & fees; % of Revenue 8% 8% 7% 9% relatively stable Expense ($B) $1,652 $2,160 $2,983 $3,455 On average, expense grew 5% Y/Y over the Y/Y Growth 3% 7% 9% -2% past 15 years Entitlement / Mandatory $870 $1,168 $1,582 $2,049 Significant increase owing to aging population % of Expense 53% 54% 53% 59% and rising healthcare costs Non-Defense Discretionary $273 $434 $518 $551 Includes education / law enforcement / % of Expense 17% 20% 17% 16% transportation / general government “One-Time” Items — — $14 — Includes discretionary spending on TARP, GSEs, % of Expense — — 0% — and economic stimulus Defense $268 $405 $616 $633 Significant increase owing to on-going War on % of Expense 16% 19% 21% 18% Terror Net Interest on Public Debt $241 $153 $253 $221 Decreased owing to historic low interest rates % of Expense 15% 7% 8% 6% Surplus / Deficit ($B) $69 -$377 -$459 -$680 USA Inc. median net margin between Net Margin (%) 4% -21% -18% -24% 1998 & 2013 = -16% Source: White House Office of Management and Budget. Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September; *individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Non-defense discretionary includes federal spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions.
  • 152. 152 9% 14% 16% 24% 18% 12% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Medicaid Medicare Income Security Social Security Defense Other Interest % of USA Federal Government Spending, 2013 Entitlement Spending = 63% Where Your Tax Dollars Go – Entitlements as % of Government Spending = 63% vs. 59% Y/Y Source: White House OMB. Note: Income security includes unemployment; food, nutrition and housing assistance; federal retirement. Other expenses include transportation, education, justice, and other general government functions.
  • 153. 153 …KEY INTERNET TRENDS 153
  • 154. 154 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Y/YGrowth GlobalInternetUsers(B) Internet Users Internet User Growth Global Internet Users, 1996 – 2013 (B) Internet User Growth = +9% in 2013 vs. +11% in 2012 = Solid, But Slowing Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, US Census Bureau, Euromonitor International.
  • 155. 155 Countries with Internet Penetration >45%, 2013 Established ‘Big’ Internet Markets (China / USA / Japan / Brazil / Russia) = +7% Growth in 2013 vs. 8% Y/Y = Slowing, Past / Near 50% Penetration Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, US Census Bureau. China Internet user data from CNNIC (12/2013). Iran Internet user data from KPCB estimates per data from Islamic Republic News Agency, citing data released by the National Internet Development Center. 2013 Internet 2013 Internet 2012 Internet Population Total Rank Country Users (MMs) User Growth User Growth Penetration Population (MMs) 1 China 618 10% 10% 46% 1,350 2 USA 263 2 2 83 316 3 Japan 101 0 1 79 127 4 Brazil 100 12 12 50 201 5 Russia 76 9 14 53 143 6 Germany 68 1 1 84 81 7 United Kingdom 55 1 3 87 63 8 France 55 5 4 83 66 9 Iran 45 16 19 56 80 10 South Korea 41 1 0 84 49 11 Turkey 36 6 9 45 81 12 Italy 36 2 6 58 61 13 Spain 34 7 3 72 47 14 Canada 30 5 4 87 35 15 Poland 25 0 4 65 38 Top 15 1,583 6% 7% 58% 2,739 World 2,609 9% 11% 37% 7,098
  • 156. 156 ‘Big’ Internet Markets (India / Indonesia / Nigeria / Mexico / Philippines) = +20% Growth in 2013 = Strong, Material Penetration Upside Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, US Census Bureau. Indonesia Internet user data from APJII (1/2014). 2013 Internet 2013 Internet 2012 Internet Population Total Rank Country Users (MMs) User Growth User Growth Penetration Population (MMs) 1 India 154 27% 36% 13% 1,221 2 Indonesia 71 13 15 28 251 3 Nigeria 57 19 21 33 173 4 Mexico 46 11 14 38 119 5 Philippines 38 27 18 36 106 6 Egypt 38 13 29 44 85 7 Vietnam 37 14 16 39 92 8 South Africa 20 20 41 41 49 9 Pakistan 19 12 14 10 193 10 Thailand 18 12 6 27 67 11 Ukraine 15 17 22 34 45 12 Kenya 14 17 105 32 44 13 Venezuela 13 11 9 44 28 14 Peru 11 7 5 38 30 15 Uzbekistan 10 22 52 37 29 Top 15 560 18% 24% 22% 2,532 World 2,609 9% 11% 37% 7,098
  • 157. 157 Markets with >45% Penetration Established ‘Big’ Smartphone Markets (USA / Japan / UK / Germany / Korea) = +17% Growth in 2013 = Slowing, Well Past 50% Penetration Source: Informa. Note: Japan data per Gartner, Morgan Stanley Research, and KPCB estimates. 2013 Smartphone 2013 Smartphone Population Total 2014E Smartphone Rank Country Subs (MMs) Sub Growth Penetration Population (MMs) Sub Growth 1 USA 188 21% 59% 316 12% 2 Japan 99 5 78 127 5 3 UK 43 18 68 63 12 4 Germany 40 34 49 81 31 5 Korea 38 18 79 49 5 6 France 33 29 50 66 21 7 Saudi Arabia 30 20 110 27 15 8 Poland 22 29 57 38 24 9 Australia 19 20 85 22 12 10 Canada 18 21 53 35 15 11 Malaysia 16 23 54 30 21 12 Netherlands 12 18 69 17 13 13 Taiwan 11 23 49 23 27 14 Sweden 9 10 94 10 4 15 UAE 9 20 160 5 14 Top 15 588 19% 65% 910 13% World 1,786 28% 25% 7,098 24%
  • 158. 158 Markets with Developing ‘Big’ Smartphone Markets (China / India / Brazil / Indonesia / Russia) = +32% Growth in 2013 = Strong, Material Penetration Upside Remains Source: Informa. 2013 Smartphone 2013 Smartphone Population Total 2014E Smartphone Rank Country Subs (MMs) Sub Growth Penetration Population (MMs) Sub Growth 1 China 422 26% 31% 1,350 19% 2 India 117 55 10 1,221 45 3 Brazil 72 38 36 201 30 4 Indonesia 48 42 19 251 36 5 Russia 46 30 33 143 27 6 Mexico 22 49 19 119 39 7 Egypt 21 41 25 85 36 8 Italy 21 33 34 61 41 9 Spain 21 20 44 47 17 10 Philippines 20 43 19 106 36 11 Nigeria 20 43 12 173 39 12 South Africa 20 32 41 49 27 13 Thailand 18 27 27 67 24 14 Turkey 18 32 22 81 28 15 Argentina 17 40 41 43 34 Top 15 905 33% 23% 3,996 28% World 1,786 28% 25% 7,098 24%
  • 159. 159 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 %ofInternetTraffic Global Mobile Traffic as % of Total Internet Traffic, 12/08 – 5/14 (with Trendline Projection to 5/15E) 0.9% in 5/09 2.4% in 5/10 15% in 5/13 6% in 5/11 10% in 5/12 Trendline E 25% in 5/14 Mobile Traffic as % of Global Internet Traffic = Growing >1.5x per Year & Likely to Maintain Trajectory or Accelerate Source: StatCounter Global Stats, 5/14. Note that PC-based Internet data bolstered by streaming.
  • 160. 160 …PUBLIC COMPANY TRENDS 160
  • 161. 161 1) Three Ways to Get Capital into Company – Sell stock, borrow money, earn it. Earn it is best! 2) Balance Sheets Matter – Without a balance sheet, it’s hard to understand where a company stands. 3) Great Companies Grow Revenue, Make Profits and Invest for Future – Companies that do just 2 of 3 are signing up for being just ‘OK,’ not ‘great.’ 4) Companies Learn to Make Money or Not – Companies that make money generally continue to do so, companies that don’t make money generally continue that also. It becomes core to ‘culture.’ Financial Philosophy – Michael Marks (Stanford GSB)
  • 162. 162 20 Years Ago: Peak of NASDAQ: Today: Dec 1994 – S&P500 = $3.2T Mar 2000 – S&P500 = $11.7T May 2014 – S&P500 = $17.4T Sector Weight Largest Companies Sector Weight Largest Companies Sector Weight Largest Companies CONS. STAPLES 14% COCA-COLA ALTRIA TECHNOLOGY 35% MICROSOFT CISCO TECHNOLOGY 19% APPLE GOOGLE CONS. DISC. 13% MOTORS LIQUIDATION FORD FINANCIALS 13% CITIGROUP AIG FINANCIALS 16% WELLS FARGO JPMORGAN CHASE INDUSTRIALS 13% GENERAL ELECTRIC 3M CONS. DISC. 10% TIME WARNER HOME DEPOT HEALTHCARE 13% JOHNSON & JOHNSON PFIZER FINANCIALS 11% AIG FANNIE MAE HEALTHCARE 10% MERCK PFIZER CONS. DISC. 12% AMAZON.COM WALT DISNEY TECHNOLOGY 11% IBM MICROSOFT INDUSTRIALS 8% GENERAL ELECTRIC TYCO INDUSTRIALS 11% GENERAL ELECTRIC UNITED TECHNOLOGIES HEALTHCARE 10% MERCK JOHNSON & JOHNSON TELECOM 7% SOUTHWESTERN BELL AT&T CONS. STAPLES 11% WAL-MART PROCTOR & GAMBLE ENERGY 9% EXXON MOBIL CONS. STAPLES 7% WAL-MART COCA-COLA ENERGY 10% EXXON MOBIL CHEVRON TELECOM 8% SOUTHWESTERN BELL GTE ENERGY 5% EXXON MOBIL CHEVRON MATERIALS 3% DUPONT MONSANTO MATERIALS 7% DUPONT DOW CHEMICAL MATERIALS 2% DUPONT ALCOA UTILITIES 3% DUKE ENERGY NEXTERA ENERGY UTILITIES 4% SOUTHERN COMPANY DUKE ENERGY UTILITIES 2% DUKE ENERGY AES TELECOM 2% VERIZON AT&T Source: CapIQ, updated as of 5/21/14. Tech Companies = Top 1 or 2 Sector by Market Cap in S&P500 for Nearly 2 Decades
  • 163. 163 This presentation has been compiled for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities in any entity. The presentation relies on data and insights from a wide range of sources, including public and private companies, market research firms and government agencies. We cite specific sources where data are public; the presentation is also informed by non-public information and insights. We publish the Internet Trends report on an annual basis, but on occasion will highlight new insights. We will post any updates, revisions, or clarifications on the KPCB website. KPCB is a venture capital firm that owns significant equity positions in certain of the companies referenced in this presentation, including those at http://www.kpcb.com/companies. Disclosure

 

By Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Venture Capital at KPCB